uniformed swinger seeks concrete poll

or something equally dodgy… This from Peter Kellner at yougov should be worrying reading for both main parties.

Things may – indeed, things WILL – change between now and next May. This analysis takes no account of possible Ukip gains. Nor does it allow for the way the parties will fight the marginals: will Labour win the “ground war” and reduce the Tories’ incumbency bonus? Will the Tories manage to squeeze Ukip support in Con-Lab contests with their message, “vote Farage, get Miliband”? Will Labour recover in Scotland? Above all, will the underlying support for each party change over the next five months – and, if so, how far and in what direction?

All that said, the overall conclusion is clear: Britain-wide uniform swing projections won’t work this time; and, unless the total votes won by Labour and the Conservatives are extremely close, it is pretty certain that the party with the more votes will end up with the more seats. Labour can forget dreams of ending up the largest party even if it wins a million fewer votes than the Tories.

The interesting thing is going to be the entering into a 3 or 6 party political system despite having a First Past the Post electoral system.

Something tells me neither UKIP nor the SNP or to a lesser extent the Greens are going away – while the Lib Dems are (unfortunately) going to hang on in there just.

When the figures are so tight Plaid Cymru and the Northern Ireland parties will also come into play. We could end up with minority coalition government relying on confidence and supply arrangements with the likes of the Democratic Unionist Party and Plaid at the same time…

Whatever happens from an election and polling geek point of view 2015 will be interesting.

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